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Electrical Equipment: Distributed PV Becomes New Power for Growth
Matters Remarks ● In September, the new PV installations exceeded expectations. Combined with the data from China Electric Power Association and CPIA, we expect the newly installed capacity to be 3.72 GW in September (3.36 GW in August), and the new PV installed capacity will continue to maintain a high degree of prosperity. From January to September, the cumulative installed capacity of 42GW has exceeded the previously anticipated total installed capacity of 40GW in 2017.
●Distribution becomes a new driving force for growth (310328, fund). In the first nine months of 2017, 15GW of new distributed installed capacity was added, which represented a year-on-year increase of more than 300%. In the first half of the year, distributed new installed capacity was 7.11GW, and in June-September, distributed installed capacity was 7.89GW. Distributed share for the first nine months of 2017 was 37.5%, compared with 10% for the same period last year. After 6.30 rushed to install tides, distribution became a new growth driver. Based on the downward adjustment of distributed subsidies in the future, the distributed market in Q4 2017 will continue to be installed.
● Continually optimistic about the investment in equipment under the tide of expansion of capacity expansion under the influence of the PV climate and monocrystalline silicon permeability.
Sun Energy announced the addition of 0.6 GW of monocrystalline silicon production capacity, Central shares (002129, shares it) added 8.6 GW of production capacity, the continued expansion of single crystal silicon production capacity continues to verify the logic. From 2017 to 2020, the world's newly-increased installed capacity of PV increased by 6%. China's newly installed capacity of photovoltaics exceeded expectations and is expected to reach 35GW per year in the future. The permeability of monocrystalline silicon continues to increase, and optimism is expected to reach 40%-50% by 2020.
According to our optimistic forecast for the global demand for monocrystalline silicon capacity of 74GW in 2020, China has occupied the world's major silicon wafer production capacity. We estimate that the annual new-crystal silicon production capacity will be 10.5GW, 13.65GW, 17.15GW, and 21.29GW per year from 2017 to 2020. The corresponding growth rate is 184%, 30%, 30%, and 20%.
We believe that in the future of photovoltaic-free Internet access, single crystal is the trend. Under the monocrystalline trend, the single-crystal silicon production capacity will continue to exceed expectations in the future. And we infer that the single crystal production capacity in the future may be from supply shortage to capacity competition. Single crystal silicon equipment will be the first to benefit from the pre-investment in production capacity, and monocrystalline silicon equipment will continue to benefit from the surge in single crystal capacity under the high boom of the photovoltaic industry and the increase in monocrystalline silicon permeability.
● The transformation of polysilicon diamond wire is an immediate task. With the huge production capacity of monocrystalline silicon, polysilicon technology has reached the moment of survival. Among them, Polysilicon leading enterprise GCL-Poly is clearly proposing that by the end of 2017, the output of diamond wire cut wafers will reach 90%. From the perspective of the entire industry, the proportion of polycrystalline diamond wire used in the whole industry in 2017 may exceed 60%, and it is expected to reach 100% in 2018.