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Before and after the Spring Festival this year, the market gave a relatively high degree of attention to the recovery of industrial control. Soon new energy vehicles and photovoltaics have become the focus of the whole market, and the heat of the industrial control sector is no longer. However, in fact, the recovery of industrial control has been continuing. The operating performance of related listed companies such as Inventronics (002334) and Xinjie Electric (603416) has also performed well. In this paper, we analyze the investment opportunities of the industrial control segment in the future. .
The three quarterly reports of IPO-listed companies performed brilliantly. IPC listed companies have announced three quarterly reports. Inventron and Xinjie Electric's third-quarter revenue growth rate and the second-quarter ratio were basically flat and did not decline. The recovery in industrial control that began in the fourth quarter of last year has continued to this day. Continuing concerns about the market have not appeared.
In the third quarter, the industrial control industry increased by 14.5%, higher than the first half. According to relevant statistics, the overall performance of the industrial control industry in the third quarter was also very good. The OEM market grew 18.9% year-on-year, and the industrial control market as a whole grew by 14.5%, with different degrees of acceleration over the previous two quarters. Among them, electronic manufacturing equipment, construction machinery, packaging machinery, textile machinery and other sub-sectors increased by the top.
The industrial control industry has three driving factors: cycle, industrial upgrading and emerging industries. The cooling and heating of the industrial control industry mainly depends on the demand for downstream machinery and equipment, and the demand for machinery and equipment depends on the demand of the industry downstream (ie downstream of the industrial control industry).
Therefore, the industrial control industry has three driving factors: First, after the demand improves, the manufacturing industry increases capital expenditure and purchases equipment. Second, in order to improve the accuracy and consistency of products and increase the added value, the manufacturing industry upgrades the old production lines. Third, with the rapid development of the economy, a number of booming emerging industries have been derived, such as lithium and OLEDs that have emerged in the past two years.
Industrial control recovery can last at least until the middle of next year. The industrial control industry is related to the prosperity of the entire industry. A good indicator of the degree of prosperity is the price of industrial products. When the industry is booming, the prices of industrial products tend to rise collectively. We found that the PPI and the industrial control cycle have a strong correlation in time. PPI measures the prices of various types of industrial products such as non-ferrous metals, coal, chemicals, building materials, textiles, etc.
And there was a rise in 2011 and it was during this period that the industrial control industry had a boom. The starting point of this round of industrial control cycles and the starting point of PPI are also highly consistent, both in the fourth quarter of 2016. On the one hand, the current PPI is still at a high level, there is no sign of decline; on the other hand, the previous price cycle of industrial control and industrial products can continue for most of two years, according to the length of time to calculate, from the start of the second half of last year, the industrial control The prosperity has only been a year old. Therefore, we predict that the current round of industrial control recovery will continue at least until the middle of next year.